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NPR's Ayesha Rascoe asks Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, about the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding and the priorities for a future peace deal.
AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
Just days after Iran and the U.S. signed what's called a memorandum of understanding, the situation remains unclear. In Lebanon, Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah renewed a ceasefire on Friday, but then Israel continued airstrikes, and Hezbollah fired back. That prompted Iran to announce it had once again closed the Strait of Hormuz, with the Pentagon saying, no, it's open. And that's the backdrop for talks in Switzerland today between Vice President JD Vance and Iranian negotiators. We're joined now by Ali Vaez. He directs the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group. Good morning.
ALI VAEZ: Good morning, Ayesha.
RASCOE: So this war started as an action by Israel and the U.S. against Iran. How key do you think Israel's actions in Lebanon are to ending the war?
VAEZ: Well, they are essential. From the Iranian perspective, this memorandum of understanding is a test for President Trump to see if he can rein in Prime Minister Netanyahu. They believe that it was Israel that pushed the United States into this conflict. And if Netanyahu is unhappy with any kind of arrangement, he can relaunch the war again a few months down the road. So they want to make sure that President Trump is able to control him, and Lebanon is the test for that.
RASCOE: And is Israel participating in the talks going on this weekend outside Lucerne?
VAEZ: Israel is not participating. No. It's not party to the memorandum of understanding or the follow-up negotiations.
RASCOE: Well, what does it say about these negotiations that Iran is able to call on the U.S. to say, hey, you need to make sure that these attacks aren't happening on Hezbollah, that they're able to bring that issue into these negotiations?
VAEZ: Look, the reality is that the first article in this memorandum of understanding almost amounts to a nonaggression pact between Iran and the United States that applies to their respective allies in the region. So the Iranians are committing, on behalf of Hezbollah, that there will be no firing at Israel, and they would expect the same from the United States. And the reality is that it is very difficult to have a positive momentum in diplomacy between Iran and the U.S. if, on daily basis, their allies are shooting at each other.
RASCOE: Well, what are Iran's priorities at this stage in the conflict?
VAEZ: Well, Iran believes that it has come out with a - having the upper hand because it has survived in having weaponized the Strait of Hormuz. It has basically been able to force the United States' much obviously stronger conventional military power to offer it terms that are beneficial and now wants to consolidate this MOU and see if there is a possibility of building on it. So the talks today are primarily about making sure that the 14 articles in this MOU that they have agreed to will be fully implemented so that it would be in place. And then that would start the clock - the 60-day clock - for reaching a final agreement in which both sides would be able to benefit more because Iran would then roll back its nuclear program and subject it to very rigorous inspection. But in return, it would also get additional sanctions relieved.
RASCOE: And what about Washington? Like, do you think that the Trump administration will be strictly focused on nuclear weapons? Or will considerations like, you know, the global energy markets being - you know, going through all of these disruptions with the strait, is that going to be the priority?
VAEZ: So for the Trump administration, similarly, getting a strong floor under this MOU is essential because then you can start building on it, and opening the Strait of Hormuz, of course, is one of the key conditions there. And because Article I, which is guns falling silent throughout the region, hasn't really been respected, the strait is also not fully open. So it is, again, essential to get that piece of the puzzle right.
And then, of course, the Trump administration has prioritized the essential, which is ending the war and opening the strait at this moment over the substantial. This - everything substantial has been deferred to the 60-day period, but that doesn't mean that those issues are not important. Again, finding where the stockpile of highly enriched uranium in Iran is, disposing of it, ensuring that there are long-term restrictions and transparency measures on Iran's nuclear program and whether this would be the beginning of a different relationship with Iran.
What is happening today, Ayesha, I want to emphasize is very important because for the first time, we're actually seeing images of Iranian officials and American officials meeting face-to-face in the same room. We have not seen these images almost in more than a decade.
RASCOE: That's Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. Thank you so much for speaking with us today.
VAEZ: My pleasure.
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