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Welcome to The Iron Triangle, the Cipher Brief column serving Procurement Officers tasked with buying the future, Investors funding the next generation of defense technology, and the Policy Wonks analyzing its impact on the global order.
COLUMN/EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — This issue explores the massive, simultaneous shifts in Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (C-UAS) authorities, funding, and technological requirements. Pentagon Procurement Officers are realizing that the drone market is evolving so rapidly that buying isolated, legacy C-UAS systems is a strategic liability. Policy wonks are watching the fundamental shift in legal and operational frameworks governing domestic and military airspace from a defensive, heavily restricted posture to a proactive one. For investors, the recent shifts mean there are unprecedented market opportunities driven by hard deadlines.
For Procurement Officers: The Death of Standalone Electronic Warfare
Traditional technologies such as Electronic Warfare (EW) aren’t going to do the job. In complex or urban environments, traditional EW suffers several technical challenges (multipath propagation, electromagnetic clutter) and is dangerous (interfering with civilian emergency channels). Furthermore, EW probably won’t work against modern drones. Many are increasingly equipped with tech that enables autonomous operation, often without RF emissions, rendering simple jamming useless.
Because of varying rules of engagement and collateral damage risks, C-UAS must be a spectrum of responses. This includes non-kinetic (cyber interference, GNSS spoofing) and kinetic (directed-energy, interceptors) options seamlessly controlled by a single architecture. Everything from detection and airspace deconfliction, to UAS defeat must be fast, precise, and integrated. No pressure.
Teaming between multiple complementary defense technology companies should be highly encouraged, if not required, to reduce or remove the burden of innovation from the government client. Procurement can then pivot to integrated, end-to-end architectures. No single vendor can create a system able to counter the entirety of today’s threats, much less the threats that emerge before your next sam.gov solicitation can get published. Shifting toward rapid procurement mechanisms and away from long-term, winner-take-all contracts will help quickly replace any technologies that fail to perform as advertised.
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For Policy Wonks: The Bureaucratic Shackles Are Off
The Department of War's (DoW) December 2025 policy lets commanders go lethal fast. The policy represents a massive culture shift, explicitly empowering commanders to extend defensive actions beyond the physical fence line of military installations. Redundant engagement zones have been simplified into just Zones 1 and 2, giving wider decision-making space based on the totality of circumstances rather than overly prescriptive engagement criteria that would otherwise delay responses and increase risk.
Executive actions have recognized that the UAS threat is no longer a foreign battlefield problem; it is a homeland security crisis driven by cartels smuggling fentanyl, criminals surveilling law enforcement, and foreign actors targeting critical infrastructure.
To combat this, the White House has mandated the FAA to provide automated, real-time access to personal identifying information associated with UAS remote identification signals to both federal and local agencies, breaking down long-standing privacy and jurisdictional silos. Yes, the government is watching you, Mr. UAS pilot.
For Investors: A Massive, Time-Sensitive Market Expansion
There are multiple, complementary catalysts for C-UAS spending, representing a windfall of opportunities for viable technologies.
The White House has mandated that federal grant programs be opened up to allow State, Local, Tribal, and Territorial agencies to purchase UAS detection and tracking equipment. This instantly expands the C-UAS customer base beyond the Pentagon to thousands of local police departments and municipal governments.
The federal government is establishing a National Training Center for Counter-UAS specifically to build capacity for major upcoming events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the 2028 Summer Olympics.
On the military side, the DoW is not waiting for an incident; they have mandated that installation commanders issue new, aggressive installation-specific operating procedures within 60 days, forcing immediate assessments of vulnerabilities and driving urgent procurement.
Investment firms should hire due diligence teams who know what they’re looking at. Defense technology companies aren’t usually being purposefully deceptive about their solution’s efficacy; they are convinced they can make it work like their pitch decks claim. Finally, be sure your due diligence team sees the technology perform before the boss wires the money.
Conclusion
The unrestricted C-UAS era has arrived, and the "Iron Triangle" of procurement, policy, and investment must move in lockstep to meet it. With the Department of War slashing bureaucratic red tape and the White House opening federal coffers to local agencies, the market is no longer just expanding, it’s exploding (pun intended). Whether you are a commander securing a base or an investor vetting the next interceptor, the mandate is to move fast, integrate everything, and prioritize results over pitch decks. Success in this new landscape requires a proactive posture and a healthy dose of skepticism toward standalone solutions.
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