What the NCAA tournament could look like with expansion

Despite plentifulness of hand-wringing from assemblage hoops purists, expanding the NCAA tournament isn't the unspeakable thought galore person suggested. In fact, yours genuinely has favored modest expansion for rather immoderate time, particularly and fundamentally if it keeps precocious majors from going their ain way.

There hasn't been superior enlargement for 40 years (when the tourney jumped from 32 to 64), and Division I hoops has grown substantially successful that time. With everyone hunting for adjacent much revenue, some interior and outer pressures are pushing the highest majors toward thing nary 1 wants: abstracted tournaments of haves and have-nots.

Instead, the NCAA looks apt to o.k. an enlargement to 72 oregon 76 teams, perchance arsenic soon arsenic this week. The NCAA is loath to set its 64-team bracket and carefully-thought-out calendar, which means up to 2 twelve teams could beryllium duking it retired successful earlier rounds arsenic soon arsenic adjacent season. So let's look astatine the applicable implications of a bigger tract -- chiefly for the caller bracket -- arsenic good arsenic what the unintended consequences could be.

Because determination are ever unintended consequences. Think backmost to the instauration of the First Four to the men's tourney successful 2011 (the women's tourney would incorporated it successful 2022). We wrote past that the archetypal 16 vs. 1 upset was "virtually guaranteed by the caller format," arsenic adding a brace of what antecedently were 15-seeds to the expanded No. 16 enactment would "stiffen the competition" for the 1-seeds. "The 15s had already proved they could bushed 2-seeds," we wrote, and successful the 14 years since, UMBC and Fairleigh Dickinson person proved america right.

We can't beryllium rather arsenic clairvoyant with this latest expansion, arsenic determination are inactive much questions than answers successful presumption of bracket composition, wherever (and for whom) the indispensable byes volition autumn and, possibly astir critically, changes to the tournament's timing and geography. Let's tackle each of those questions.

Who could get the other bids?

Perhaps the biggest question is the simplest: Who other volition spell dancing? Let's presume determination are nary changes to the fig of automatic qualifiers (AQs) oregon the fundamentals of squad enactment and seeding.

If we were to look astatine past year's 68-team tract and our Selection Sunday "bubble," expanding to 72 would person instantly added West Virginia, Indiana, Boise State and Ohio State. Our adjacent 4 out, if needed to scope 76 teams, were Dayton Flyers, Wake Forest Demon Deacons, UC Irvine Anteaters and SMU Mustangs.

It's a one-time sample, but inactive reassuring to spot 3 of the 8 bonus bids hail from extracurricular the accepted powerfulness conferences. It says present that that is simply a precise desirable outcome. Quality mid-majors person been getting the compression for years, truthful caller opportunities astatine that level of the crippled are welcome.

Going backmost to the pandemic and looking astatine the highest-ranked (by NET) unselected teams adds adjacent much perspective. This 40-team illustration of imaginable additions successful an expanded tourney breaks down arsenic follows:

• ACC/Big East/Big Ten/Big 12/SEC: 24 bids (75%)

• ALL OTHERS: 8 bids (25%)

From my seat, this is inactive excessively lopsided. But it's a start.

How volition the bracket beryllium built?

This is the hardest question to answer. Currently, 60 of 68 teams person what amounts to a "bye" into the main bracket of 64. With a 76-team field, lone 52 would person specified a bye.

Some would reason for the bottommost 24 AQs to play their mode into the eventual tract of 64. More would reason for lone at-large selections, successful this lawsuit 24 retired of 45 non-AQs, to bash so. The astir apt outcome, based connected the tournament's history, is different compromise. And the champion way to that without making a implicit messiness of the bracket is to designate 3 afloat effect lines arsenic opening-round pairings.

For the involvement of argument, let's usage effect lines 10, 11 and 12 -- which have, much often than not, seen themselves successful the First Four. These are typically a premix of stronger AQs and the last at-large teams. Doubling the fig of bids connected each of those lines gets america to 76 teams. Put them successful Tuesday-Wednesday tripleheaders and we'd person a genuinely charismatic TV merchandise (better than, say, Alabama State vs. St. Francis (PA)).

Using the 2025 tourney arsenic an example, adding the adjacent 8 bubble teams (indicated by an asterisk below) to the bracket would person produced thing similar this for an opening round:

• 10-SEEDS: Arkansas vs. New Mexico; Vanderbilt vs. Utah; Texas vs. Xavier; San Diego State vs. Drake (AQ)

• 11-SEEDS: VCU (AQ) vs. North Carolina; West Virginia* vs. Indiana*; Boise State* vs. Ohio State*; UC San Diego (AQ) vs. Colorado State (AQ)

• 12-SEEDS: Dayton* vs. Wake Forest*; UC Irvine* vs. SMU*

The last tally present is 4 AQs, 4 pre-expansion at-larges and the 8 caller at-larges (teams 69-76). There's besides a near-even divided betwixt powerfulness conferences and not.

Realistically, which seeds could the caller teams get?

The First Four was rather intentional successful designating the bottommost 4 teams from some the AQ radical and the at-large pool. The resulting Dayton doubleheaders person frankincense featured a brace of 16 vs. 16 matchups on with, typically, 11 vs. 11 seeds. The First Four besides "split the baby," if you will, successful presumption of relegating an adjacent fig of debased majors and higher majors to the opening round.

With expansion, particularly if to 76, that tidy compromise goes retired the window. Instead of 8 teams playing 4 opening-round games, a 76-team bracket requires 24 teams -- a monolithic summation -- playing 12 opening-round games. In different words, astir a 3rd of the tract volition request to compression successful an other contention soon aft Selection Sunday to support the existing tourney calendar intact.

The cleanest means to that extremity is to play Tuesday and Wednesday tripleheaders. It won't beryllium an casual turnaround for the Tuesday teams, but lone fractional of the 24 opening-round participants volition beryllium successful that situation. (The fig of teams and games required for a 72-team tract drops to 16 and eight, respectively, with 8 games connected Tuesday and Wednesday implicit 2 sites.)

When could these teams play?

The lone happening the NCAA wants much than a cleanable 64-team bracket aft the opening circular is simply a tourney that doesn't necessitate a alteration successful its calendar. The men's title has a cleanable cadence connected CBS/Turner, coordinating the Final Four a week earlier the Masters and backing Selection Sunday into that window.

Conceivably, an expanded opening circular could beryllium moved backmost a time oregon 2 -- arsenic it was for the 2021 COVID tourney -- and widen the circular of 32 into Monday oregon Tuesday of the pursuing week. But that would disrupt the accepted Thursday and Friday of the archetypal round, arguably the astir fashionable constituent of the existing format.

The lone alteration I foresee successful the agelong tally is the elimination of each league title games connected Selection Sunday, resulting successful a Selection Show that airs earlier successful the day. This would springiness further question and prep clip to the 24 opening-round participants.

Where could the caller teams play?

Dayton has its First Four hosting privileges done the 2028 tournament. One enactment is to determination the remaining other games to a preexisting first/second-round site. More likely, successful bid to make a morganatic tourney ambiance arsenic good arsenic needed bracket flexibility, the solution is to place a companion opening-round tract and replicate the Dayton exemplary extracurricular the Eastern clip zone.

Geography should beryllium the superior information here. Until we travel up with a configuration that keeps the 1 twelve opening-round winners from instantly needing to caput for the airport, that question should beryllium minimized.

I would prime the non-Dayton tract based connected the sub-regional locations successful each year's tournament. This coming season, not that anyone asked, my ballot would beryllium for Kansas City.

Looking astatine the wide product, I don't emotion the cumbersome opening circular required by 76 (or adjacent 72) teams. I inactive judge the champion tourney would diagnostic the archetypal 64-team tract with immoderate benignant of minimum eligibility request for middling precocious majors. But, astatine this point, factors beyond hoops are pointing toward enlargement being inevitable.

Are these cleanable solutions? No.

But a fractured athletics without the NCAA tourney arsenic we cognize it would beryllium acold worse.