9 months ago
27
June is supposed to be the first month of summer, but it hasn't really felt like it.
In the first couple of weeks, temperatures have generally been around 1-3C below average but cloud, rain and a brisk wind have made it feel colder.
Conversely, with the strong June sunshine at times, it may have also felt a bit warmer.
With a chilly northerly wind through much of the week ahead, temperatures will stay on the lower side of normal.
The week has started on a rather wet and disappointing note, with a strong northerly wind in East Anglia, some heavy rain across eastern England and scattered showers elsewhere.
With Monday's maximum temperatures around 10 to 14C in northern and eastern areas of the UK, it will feel more like early April than June.
Elsewhere, temperatures may reach 15 to 17C but that is still a good three to five degrees colder than it should be for mid-June.
There won't be much change to these temperatures throughout the week.
The only time it might feel warmer is if you are out of the wind and in some sunshine.
With the summer solstice on 20 June, the Sun is very strong and you will feel that on your skin.
With an area of high pressure in the mid-Atlantic and low pressure towards Scandinavia, the jet stream - a fast-moving wind high in the atmosphere - is in a position north to south over the UK.
This is therefore dragging colder air from the Arctic.
In the summer months we would typically expect the jet stream to be positioned to the north of the UK, allowing warmer air to move in from the south.
There isn't going to be much change to the overall pattern this week with that colder northerly wind persisting.
There will, however, be some slightly more settled weather for a time midweek which may bring a bit more sunshine and lighter winds.
The strong June sunshine may make it feel a tad warmer at times.
With a gradual shift to west or south-westerly winds by the end of the week, temperatures will start to creep up.
However, the main source of our air, while coming in to the UK from the west, will still generally originate from the Arctic region.
Temperatures will however come closer to the average for mid-June.
Our perception of "warmer" may be countered by a unsettled spell of weather though with spells of rain, thunderstorms and brisk winds in to the weekend.
We may have to wait until the last week of June before more settled weather makes it feel more summery.
According to our latest monthly outlook, there are signs that high pressure will build up near or over parts of the UK for an extended period.
This would increase the likelihood of calmer and drier weather with temperatures rising to around or above average.
