Which teams take the next step in 2025? We have 11 candidates

No substance however we spell astir mounting our preseason expectations for the 2025 assemblage shot play -- polls, machine projections, axenic gut instincts -- we're going to extremity up mostly right. We're going to presume that the teams that were the champion past twelvemonth volition beryllium the champion this year, and that's going to carnivore retired successful astir instances.

In different cases, however, we're going to beryllium hilariously incorrect. Take past season's preseason apical 10: Six of those teams ended up successful the yearend apical six and scored College Football Playoff bids, and 2 others were among the apical 3 teams to miss the CFP. Very accurate! But then, preseason No. 9 Michigan and No. 10 Florida State fell from a combined 28-1 the twelvemonth earlier to 10-15. Both finished unranked. They fundamentally switched bodies, "Freaky Friday" style, with Arizona State and Indiana, who went from a combined 6-18 successful 2023 to 24-5 with top-10 finishes and playoff bids.

Every play is mostly predictable but for a fistful of implicit shocks. And the extremity of this yearly portion is to place which of past season's bully astonishment teams are astir apt to prolong their gains and which of the atrocious astonishment programs are astir apt to bounce back. Using SP+ ratings and luck factors arsenic our guide, we tin usually pinpoint the likeliest teams for each category.

In past year's edition of this column, the 7 "most apt to prolong breakthroughs" teams I named went from a combined 49-41 with an mean SP+ ranking of 53.9 to 60-32 and 40.6, respectively. Colorado, Colorado State and Miami won an further 11 much games betwixt them, portion Colorado, Miami, Rutgers and Virginia Tech each improved by astatine slightest 14 much spots successful SP+. Meanwhile, the six teams I named for the "most apt to rebound from a regression season" database went from a combined 27-47 with an 81.5 mean ranking to 42-34 and 54.7. Five improved their triumph totals, and each six improved their SP+ rankings. Success!

The preseason canvass rankings and last SP+ projections for 2025 are coming successful August. But portion we wait, let's erstwhile again foretell immoderate of this coming season's happier stories. Which of 2024's unexpected breakthroughs mightiness find adjacent further heights? Which of past year's disappointments are likeliest to bounce back?

Teams astir apt to prolong 2024 gains

When our squad surges to unexpected occurrence successful a fixed season, we similar to deliberation of this arsenic the caller reality. We're bully now! That's ne'er going to alteration again! Unfortunately, world seldom agrees with that. Over the past 20 years, we've seen an mean of 1.9 teams improving by astatine slightest 20 ratings points successful SP+ and an mean of 18.0 improving by astatine slightest 10 points. On average, these teams regress the adjacent play 61% of the time, 32% by astatine slightest a touchdown.

These numbers haven't needfully changed successful the 2020s, aka the transportation portal era. The rules of roster absorption person been wholly altered, but since 2021 we've inactive seen 18.3 teams improving by 10-plus points successful a fixed season. Interestingly, lone 54% regressed the adjacent year, 25% by a touchdown oregon more. We don't yet cognize whether this is simply a small-sample effect oregon a genuine displacement successful the data, truthful I'll inactive thin connected the historical averages, but it's thing to watch.

In 2024, 16 teams improved by astatine slightest 10 points. Based connected the averages above, we tin expect astir 40% of them -- six oregon 7 -- to amended further successful 2025. Only 2 were projected to bash truthful successful my astir recent SP+ rankings, which means I'll person to stray from the numbers to propulsion the database together. But aft penning lengthy league previews astir each team, present are the teams I judge are the likeliest candidates to physique connected 2024's astonishment success:

Arizona State Sun Devils

2023: 3-9 record, 107th successful SP+ (-11.3 adjusted points per game, oregon 11.3 worse than the mean assemblage shot team)

2024: 11-3, 35th (+9.4)

2025 projection (as of May): 8.4 mean wins, 22nd (+12.2)

From my Big 12 preview: "It's hard to cognize what to bash with a late-season surge. ASU was coagulated for astir two-thirds of the play and outstanding for one-third, and portion that wasn't capable to gain the spot of SP+ -- and a 6-2 grounds successful one-score finishes volition beryllium pugnacious to duplicate -- capable of past year's cardinal contributors instrumentality to deliberation that this could beryllium a top-15-level squad again."

Because of each those adjacent wins, it mightiness beryllium hard for Kenny Dillingham's Sun Devils to lucifer past year's 11-win total, particularly without Cam Skattebo astir to grind retired tough-as-hell yards astatine times. But Skattebo is conscionable astir the lone large departure. Quarterback Sam Leavitt should person an improved receiving corps, wherever Jordyn Tyson is joined by late-2024 big-play shaper Malik McClain, seasoned transportation Jalen Moss (Fresno State) and high-upside youngsters specified arsenic Noble Johnson (Clemson) and Jaren Hamilton (Alabama). Meanwhile, the violative enactment and a defence that besides surged down the agelong are some loaded with seniors.

This is simply a squad built for different tally and further betterment connected paper, adjacent if the deity of adjacent games turns against it astatine immoderate point.

Baylor Bears

2023: 3-9 record, 97th successful SP+ (-8.3 adjusted PPG)

2024: 8-5, 38th (+8.4)

2025 projection (as of May): 6.7 mean wins, 35th (+7.5)

Again from the Big 12 preview: "Jake Spavital's discourtesy was magnificent. Sawyer Robertson threw for 3,071 yards and 28 TDs, portion backs Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass rushed for 1,699 rushing yards and 18 TDs. Baylor gained astatine slightest 20 yards connected 8.7% of its snaps (10th successful FBS) portion gaining zero oregon less connected conscionable 27.7% (19th). That operation volition people you tons of points. ... The Bears scored 31 oregon much points 9 times past year, and it would beryllium a astonishment if they did truthful less times successful 2025. Big 12 contention, then, is up to the defense."

Baylor won the past six games of the regular season, scoring an mean of 12.1 points much than projected, and astir each of the reasons for the violative surge return. It's so up to Matt Powledge's defence -- which besides improved successful 2024, but lone to 63rd successful antiaircraft SP+ -- to find the Bears' fate. Experience won't beryllium an issue. Dave Aranda added 13 transfers to spell with the 10 returnees who saw 200-plus snaps past year. And determination are known playmakers specified arsenic tackle Jackie Marshall, incoming linebacker Travion Barnes (FIU) and nickelback Carl Williams IV, too. After rebounding into the SP+ apical 40 past season, it definite looks similar the Bears are built to ace the apical 30 this clip around.

Buffalo Bulls

2023: 3-9 record, 119th successful SP+ (-15.2 adjusted PPG)

2024: 9-4, 87th (-4.0)

2025 projection (as of May): 7.7 mean wins, 91st (-7.1)

From my MAC preview: "[Pete Lembo] engineered contiguous betterment successful his instrumentality to MAC life, and present starring rusher Al-Jay Henderson, starring receiver Victor Snow, 3 starting O-linemen and 12 of 17 defenders with astatine slightest 200 snaps each return. ... From a axenic height-and-weight standpoint, the extent illustration should look similar thing from a powerfulness conference."

Buffalo was highly all-or-nothing past season, overachieving against SP+ projections by astatine slightest 11 points six times and underachieving by that overmuch 3 times. But that's a nett gain! Even without immoderate semblance of violative efficiency, the Bulls fielded their champion squad successful 4 years. This clip around, they should person capable violative acquisition to debar rather arsenic galore three-and-outs, and possibly nary Group of 5 defence returns a proven trio of disruptors successful extremity Kobe Stewart, extracurricular linebacker Dion Crawford and wrong linebacker Red Murdock. SP+ projects UB arsenic the third-best squad successful the MAC, but aft a season-opening travel to Minnesota -- not a gimme for the Golden Gophers -- the Bulls are astatine slightest flimsy projected favorites successful each game.

I privation I felt amended astir their backmost situation, wherever either journeyman Ta'Quan Roberson oregon little-used backup Gunnar Gray is apt to start. But speech from possibly Toledo, nary different MAC squad brings this overmuch upside to the array successful 2025.

Illinois Fighting Illini

2023: 5-7 record, 75th successful SP+ (-2.5 adjusted PPG)

2024: 10-3, 31st (+9.6)

2025 projection (as of May): 8.7 mean wins, 19th (+14.3)

From my Big Ten preview: "The Illini won 10 games for the archetypal clip successful 23 years, and [Bret] Bielema rang successful 2025 by embarrassing Shane Beamer connected nationalist television. Illinois finished 16th successful the AP poll, and present it leads the league successful returning production. ... If acquisition produces sturdy play aboriginal successful the season, look out. By the extremity of September, the Illini volition person played comparative toss-ups astatine Duke and Indiana and astatine location against USC. Win each three, and they're going to beryllium successful the playoff treatment for rather a while. But it's hard to get the breaks you request successful adjacent games for 2 consecutive years."

Like Arizona State, Illinois could beryllium different "improve connected paper, regress successful the triumph column" squad depending connected however agelong the bully luck successful adjacent games continues. But of the apical 4 projected teams successful the Big Ten, the Illini play lone 1 and should triumph rather a fewer games by good much than 1 score. New go-to moving backmost Aidan Laughery could bask a immense season, and if backmost Luke Altmyer gets a bully twelvemonth from astatine slightest 1 transportation receiver -- the astir apt of the bunch: Hudson Clement (West Virginia) -- this discourtesy should beryllium Illinois' archetypal top-50 onslaught successful 15 years (!). I'm acrophobic astir the remodeled antiaircraft line, but coordinator Aaron Henry gets the payment of the doubt. This should beryllium a coagulated team.

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Carson Beck: Joining Miami feels similar 'a full-circle moment'

Carson Beck joins "SportsCenter" to sermon increasing up a Florida Gators instrumentality and playing assemblage shot for immoderate of their biggest rivals.

Miami Hurricanes

2023: 7-6 record, 28th successful SP+ (+9.6 adjusted PPG)

2024: 10-3, 10th (+21.6)

2025 projection (as of May): 9.2 mean wins, 12th (+18.8)

From my ACC preview: "After a dismal archetypal play successful complaint -- Miami fell to 5-7 and 71st successful SP+ successful 2022 -- things person improved dramatically. The Canes jumped to 7-6 and 28th successful 2023, and adjacent with a defence that was actively moving against the squad for fractional the season, they improved further, to 10-3 and 10th successful SP+, past season. ... I similar what Miami volition person successful the trenches, and contempt the occasional INTs, [Georgia transportation Carson] Beck is simply a precise bully QB. But Miami volition request the teardowns successful the receiving corps and secondary to stick. I'm beauteous definite the second will, but I'm not definite Beck volition person capable beardown walk catchers."

This one's decidedly much astir sustaining gains than prepping for different surge. You tin lone emergence truthful overmuch higher than 10th. But I bash deliberation Mario Cristobal's Hurricanes person a accidental of matching past year's wide quality, albeit successful a much balanced way: The discourtesy volition astir surely regress a spot portion the defence improves. If the second matches oregon outpaces the former, voila, sustained gains!

With bully wellness and amended assistance up front, antiaircraft enactment prima Rueben Bain Jr. could person a immense year, and I truly similar the additions successful the secondary, particularly ultra-aggressive information Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State). The Miami defence should person ne'er been arsenic mediocre arsenic it was precocious past fall, but it volition person a accidental to marque amends successful 2025.

Pittsburgh Panthers

2023: 3-9 record, 91st successful SP+ (-7.3 adjusted PPG)

2024: 7-6, 51st (+4.9)

2025 projection (as of May): 6.1 mean wins, 47th (+3.4)

From the ACC preview: "As delightful arsenic they looked during their unbeaten start, they looked arsenic mislaid during an 0-6 finish. They much than doubled their triumph full successful the astir disappointing imaginable way. ... [Desmond Reid] aside, astir of past year's astir breathtaking players were freshmen and sophomores, and 1 tin spot however acquisition mightiness soil down unsmooth edges and marque Pitt an ACC acheronian horse. But that late-season illness was beauteous ugly. It's up to the Panthers to beryllium whether the archetypal oregon 2nd fractional of the play showed america the mode forward."

It's hard to spot immoderate Pitt prediction. The Panthers improved by 5 wins successful 2021, regressed by six successful 2023, past improved by 4 successful 2024. In that tiny span, they person ranked arsenic precocious arsenic sixth successful violative SP+ and arsenic debased arsenic 108th. They're susceptible of anything. But past year's discourtesy jumped to 54th and would person risen adjacent further if backmost Eli Holstein had stayed healthy. With Holstein, Reid, a much experienced violative enactment and big-time antiaircraft disruptors specified arsenic linebacker Kyle Louis and extremity Jimmy Scott, this is astatine slightest a top-40 team. We'll spot astir the "ACC acheronian horse" enactment above, but further betterment feels likely.

Teams astir apt to rebound from a 2024 stumble

In a beingness successful which you're measured by wins and losses, everything is zero-sum: If someone's rising, someone's falling. And the inclination for collapses is astir identical to the inclination for abrupt surges. Over the past 20 years, an mean of 1.8 teams person collapsed by astatine slightest 20 adjusted points per crippled successful SP+, and an mean of 16.9 person fallen by astatine slightest 10 points. Of those teams that stumble, 64% of them amended the adjacent play and 36% by astatine slightest a touchdown. The trends of the 2020s person been comparatively similar: Only astir 14.5 teams person regressed by 10-plus points implicit the past 4 seasons -- again, we'll spot if that's a inclination -- and 68% person rebounded the adjacent year.

Last year, 2 teams regressed by 20-plus points: the aforementioned Florida State Seminoles and Michigan Wolverines. Twelve others fell by astatine slightest 10 points. Averages suggest astir 36% of these 14 teams -- astir 5 -- volition amended by a touchdown oregon much successful 2025. Here are the 5 I deliberation are astir likely:

Air Force Falcons

2023: 9-4 record, 45th successful SP+ (+5.9 adjusted PPG)

2024: 5-7, 111th (-11.7)

2025 projection (as of May): 6.2 mean wins, 94th (-7.3)

From my Mountain West preview: "A mislaid play became an encouraging 1 late: Over their past 5 games, the Falcons overachieved against projections by an mean of 17.7 points per game, and aft a 20-3 nonaccomplishment to Army dropped them to 1-7, they won their past 4 games, astir impressively destroying Oregon State, 28-0. The full-season averages inactive weren't great, but arsenic with Michigan, Air Force fundamentally saw its triumph full chopped successful fractional from the erstwhile play but someway inactive ended up successful a bully mood."

Even with Air Force's caller occurrence -- astatine slightest 9 wins successful 4 consecutive afloat seasons -- it was casual to foretell a illness successful 2024, arsenic the Falcons had 1 of the lowest returning accumulation averages successful caller memory. It's astir arsenic casual to foretell a coagulated rebound this year, chiefly due to the fact that it already started precocious past season. If inferior Josh Johnson is half-decent astatine quarterback, the discourtesy should get backmost connected way with assistance from fullback Dylan Carson, big-play slot backmost Cade Harris and error-free halfway Costen Cooley. The defence has rather a spot to regenerate successful the secondary, but seasoned antiaircraft tackle Payton Zdroik should guarantee disruption up front. This squad should astatine slightest ascent backmost to 7-5 oregon 8-4.

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FSU QB Castellanos stands by Alabama jab

Florida State backmost Tommy Castellanos speaks to reporters astir what helium meant by his jab astatine Alabama during the summer.

Florida State Seminoles

2023: 13-1 record, ninth successful SP+ (+19.4 adjusted PPG)

2024: 2-10, 83rd (-3.2)

2025 projection (as of May): 6.8 mean wins, 36th (+7.2)

Again from the ACC preview: "This was a illness connected the standard of Bobby Petrino's past play astatine Louisville, Texas' archetypal play aft 2009 BCS Championship disappointment and Notre Dame's 2007 swoon nether Charlie Weis. And it's noteworthy that nary of the coaches successful complaint during those collapses could close the ship. But [Mike] Norvell volition try. ... There are capable proven entities to presume the defence volition bounce back. In fact, the illness was truthful important past play that we should presume immoderate progression toward the mean everywhere. But however overmuch of a rebound tin you propulsion disconnected aft specified a collapse?"

This is immoderate beauteous low-hanging effect -- if the Seminoles are mean successful 2025, that volition suffice arsenic coagulated betterment aft past season's disintegration. I'm not definite what to expect from a remodeled offense; caller violative coordinator Gus Malzahn has an awfully Malzahn-friendly QB successful the speedy transportation Tommy Castellanos (Boston College) and caller imaginable big-play receivers successful Duce Robinson (USC), Squirrel White (Tennessee) and Randy Pittman Jr. (UCF), but it mightiness beryllium hard to get a rebuilt violative enactment up to speed. Regardless, the antiaircraft beforehand six has immoderate caller playmakers, and again, the barroom for betterment is incredibly low. I'm not definite however galore games Norvell needs to triumph to prevention his job, but the Noles volition astir surely not spell 2-10 again.

Michigan Wolverines

2023: 15-0 record, archetypal successful SP+ (+31.3 adjusted PPG)

2024: 8-5, 26th (+10.6)

2025 projection (as of May): 9.8 mean wins, 10th (+21.5)

From the Big Ten preview: "The Wolverines went unbeaten erstwhile scoring astatine slightest 24 points (national scoring average: 28.0), but they reached that people successful lone six of 13 games acknowledgment chiefly to a achromatic spread astatine the QB position. They ranked 91st successful Total QBR and 131st -- past nationally among non-service academies -- successful passing yards per crippled (129.1). ... Either five-star freshman Bryce Underwood oregon seasoned transportation Mikey Keene (Fresno State) volition statesman the play astatine QB for Moore's 2nd Michigan team, and it's astir apt just to presume that Underwood volition decorativeness it there. His archetypal outpouring was up-and-down, but going from the aforementioned achromatic spread to the champion precocious schoolhouse imaginable successful the state is rather the leap."

Seeing Michigan projected 10th wide was a spot concerning, arsenic the discourtesy inactive has loads of questions. But I'd beryllium amazed if the Wolverines didn't person a top-10 defense, and the docket features lone 1 projected top-15 team, per SP+. And they won 8 games and bushed Ohio State and Alabama portion getting astir thing from the QB. Even if Underwood isn't acceptable to pb a CFP squad yet, a instrumentality to 9-3 oregon truthful and occasional existent passing yardage don't look similar excessively overmuch to ask.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles

2023: 3-9 record, 116th successful SP+ (-14.4 adjusted PPG)

2024: 1-11, 133rd (-25.6)

2025 projection (as of May): 3.4 mean wins, 128th (-17.7)

From my Sun Belt preview: "What happens erstwhile you graft one-quarter of past year's Sun Belt title roster onto the worst roster successful the conference? We're going to find out! After signing much than 50 transfers successful summation to the mean freshman/JUCO signing class, [Charles Huff] has astir wholly flipped the roster successful six months. ... SP+ is mounting the barroom debased due to the fact that things similar "recent history" inactive thin to substance much often than not. But arsenic with Marshall, this is simply a total, unprojectable roster reset."

The communicative of Southern Miss successful 2025 could lone instrumentality spot successful 2025 and nary clip before. Southern Miss was wretched past season, but astir nary one's near from that team. Meanwhile, backmost Braylon Braxton, 5 receivers, 4 antiaircraft linemen and 8 antiaircraft backs -- including prima country Josh Moten -- and rather a fewer others followed Charles Huff from Marshall to Hattiesburg.

I person nary thought however to acceptable close expectations, but arsenic with Florida State, this is low-hanging fruit. It volition beryllium an betterment if the Golden Eagles spell 3-9 and fertile successful the 120s. And with zero opponents projected higher than 71st successful SP+, topping the 4.5 wins acceptable astatine ESPN BET doesn't look outlandish.

Washington Huskies

2023: 14-1 record, 13th successful SP+ (+16.4 adjusted PPG)

2024: 6-7, 58th (+3.1)

2025 projection (as of May): 6.3 mean wins, 39th (+6.4)

Again from the Big Ten preview: "If [Demond Williams Jr.] is genuinely bully -- and doesn't instrumentality a cardinal sacks -- past there's a morganatic accidental for a second-year leap for the UW offense. He'll person a comparatively experienced enactment successful beforehand of him and a accomplishment corps that includes 1,000-yard backmost Jonah Coleman (and a carnal backup successful sophomore Adam Mohammed), receivers Denzel Boston and Penn State transportation Omari Evans, and different sophomore successful big-play choky extremity Decker DeGraaf. ... Fisch generated tons of traction successful his 2nd play astatine Arizona, and it's not hard to envision thing akin happening astatine UW. But he'll request to deed connected a batch of transfers, and he'll request his religion successful a feline with 153 dropbacks wholly rewarded."

In the past 4 seasons, Washington has bounced from 4-8 to 11-2 to 14-1 to 6-7. That's capable to springiness you question sickness, but the operation of Williams, Coleman, Boston and a semi-experienced violative enactment should bash bully things. Plus, the defence has capable breathtaking caller players -- tackle Ta'ita'i Uiagalelei (Arizona), linebacker Xe'ree Alexander (UCF), country Tacario Davis (Arizona), safeties CJ Christian (Florida International) and Alex McLaughlin (NAU) -- that caller coordinator Ryan Walters mightiness get distant with the assertive antheral defence helium usually prefers. Playing 4 projected top-20 teams could marque 8-4 oregon truthful the ceiling this year, but betterment inactive seems likely.