Who will be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft? We predicted chances for 14 top prospects

Sure, determination are much than 9 months until the 2026 NFL draft starts successful Pittsburgh, but it's ne'er excessively aboriginal to sermon the No. 1 pick. And there's plentifulness to speech about.

Last year's travel to No. 1 saw backmost Cam Ward crook from a sleeper imaginable to the unquestioned apical quarterback successful the 2025 draft. Will we spot different QB travel retired of (almost) obscurity to beryllium the archetypal pick? Will 1 of the apical quarterbacks beneath get it? Will Arch Manning detonate astatine Texas and articulation his uncles arsenic a No. 1 wide pick? Or volition a non-quarterback get the apical spot for the archetypal clip since 2022?

I picked 14 players who could beryllium that apical prime successful Pittsburgh, adding percent likelihood for each player. I'm starting with 1 of my favourite quarterbacks successful this class, but don't place those astatine 1%. That's wherever Ward was slated this clip past year.

Jump to a tier:
Serious contenders (4)
Potential risers (3)
Long shots (7)

Serious contenders

LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina

Predicted accidental of going No. 1: 15%

Why helium could beryllium the apical pick: NFL teams perpetually autumn successful emotion with traits astatine the apical of the draft, and Sellers has immoderate of the champion traits successful the class. The 6-foot-3, 242-pound dual-threat backmost tin not lone bushed defenses with his almighty limb (2,534 passing yards and 18 touchdowns to 7 interceptions arsenic a 19-year-old redshirt freshman) but besides with his legs (674 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns).

Sellers showed drastic betterment arsenic a first-year starter, helping the Gamecocks triumph six of their last 7 games past season. His 65.6% completion percent was besides encouraging considering his inexperience and points to further betterment successful 2025.

He sometimes throws passes that are excessively blistery to grip and holds the shot excessively agelong successful the pouch -- his 3.06-second mean clip to propulsion was the 11th slowest nationally successful 2024. He'll besides request to amended his shot security, arsenic helium fumbled 11 times (lost six) past season. But if Sellers tin fine-tune these things and proceed his growth, helium has the tools to beryllium the apical prime successful the 2026 draft.

Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson

Predicted accidental of going No. 1: 15%

Why helium could beryllium the apical pick: I had Klubnik arsenic the No. 1 prime successful my Way-too-Early mock draft successful May and consciousness helium tin instrumentality vantage of arguably the astir talented roster successful the country. He wasn't connected galore draught radars aft a disappointing sophomore play successful 2023, but Klubnik made a large leap arsenic a junior, finishing with 3,639 passing yards, 36 touchdowns and lone six interceptions. He ended the play with a flourish, throwing for 336 yards and 3 touchdowns successful the College Football Playoff archetypal round against Texas.

Klubnik isn't large (6-foot-2, 210 pounds), but helium plays with a beardown level and progresses done reads quickly. No substance however muddy the pouch gets, he's capable to marque pugnacious throws owed to his balance, bushed and repeatable mechanics. There is statement astir his limb spot among NFL evaluators, though.

"I deliberation helium has capable to beryllium a good starter connected the adjacent level, but his setup volition ever person to beryllium adjacent cleanable to get the champion retired of him," an AFC enforcement from a QB-needy squad said this summer.

Klubnik is acceptable up to marque different leap, arsenic Clemson returns its apical 3 receivers (Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore). He'll person a accidental to marque a large content aboriginal this play erstwhile the Tigers play LSU successful Week 1.

Drew Allar, QB, Penn State

Predicted accidental of going No. 1: 15%

Why helium could beryllium the apical pick: Allar is simply a toolsy passer who took a large leap successful 2024 nether caller violative coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, improving his completion percent from 59.9% successful 2023 to 66.5%. He has the size (6-foot-5, 238 pounds) and beardown limb that scouts tendency and showed much assurance successful those carnal traits. He isn't shy astir utilizing his limb spot to trial choky windows and has bully mobility for his size.

Despite Allar's advancement past season, galore scouts consciousness helium inactive needs to enactment connected his shot placement. He'll beryllium tested this season, arsenic Penn State mislaid first-round choky extremity Tyler Warren and has aggregate caller receivers that Allar volition person to get acclimated to.

Evaluators besides privation to spot Allar execute amended successful large games, thing he's struggled with successful his 2 seasons arsenic a starter. Games against Oregon (Sept. 27) and Ohio State (Nov. 1) are paramount. If helium tin play much similar helium did against Oregon successful the Big Ten title game past play (280 combined yards and 4 touchdowns) and little similar helium did against Notre Dame successful the CFP semifinals (12-for-23, 135 yards and a backbreaking precocious interception), Allar could beryllium a top-10 prime ... oregon higher.

Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU

Predicted accidental of going No. 1: 15%

Why helium could beryllium the apical pick: Nussmeier performed good past play successful succeeding 2023 Heisman Trophy victor Jayden Daniels, throwing for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. Nussmeier is simply a fearless passer who produces highlights with his uncanny quality to spot large plays and propulsion his receivers open.

The 6-2, 200-pounder's limb is much flexible than powerful, but his large pouch imaginativeness and anticipation connected throws to intermediate and heavy areas of the fields basal out. He doesn't instrumentality galore sacks (his 2.9% sack percent was 12th lowest successful the FBS), but tin beryllium reckless and enactment the shot successful harm's mode -- particularly aft breaking the pocket. This showed against ranked teams, arsenic helium had 3 games of 2 oregon much interceptions against those opponents.

While Nussmeier's aggressiveness tin enactment against him, helium has the smarts, accuracy and anticipation to beryllium a apical prime successful the draft. Scouts volition privation to spot much consistency and however helium adjusts to a caller acceptable of receivers retired of the transportation portal. He'll beryllium tested close distant against Clemson successful Week 1.

Potential risers

Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

Predicted accidental of going No. 1: 12%

Why helium could beryllium the apical pick: Mendoza transferred from Cal to Indiana, wherever helium enters a quarterback-friendly offense. Kurtis Rourke transitioned from the MAC to Curt Cignetti's discourtesy and was drafted successful the seventh circular of this past draft. The ceiling for the 6-foot-5, 225-pound Mendoza is adjacent higher.

"I truly liked Mendoza's tape," an NFC country scout said. "He's the 1 to ellipse that could beryllium a bigger riser, and Cignetti has a large way grounds with transportation QBs."

Mendoza threw for 3,004 yards and 16 touchdowns with six interceptions and blends a beardown limb with positive mobility for his size. He tin basal and present successful the pouch with easiness and is highly close -- his 5.1% off-target percent past play was the champion successful the FBS. He besides excelled throwing extracurricular of the pocket, with a 91.1 QBR. Sometimes he'll interruption the pouch prematurely alternatively of allowing concepts to afloat develop, truthful scouts would similar to spot him beryllium much diligent successful those situations.

T.J. Parker, Edge, Clemson

Predicted accidental of going No. 1: 10%

Why helium could beryllium the apical pick: While quarterbacks are astir often selected with the No. 1 wide pick, borderline rushers drawback the apical spot occasionally. Travon Walker was the astir caller illustration successful 2022. The 6-3, 265-pound Parker is the astir apt non-quarterback to beryllium selected first, combining a bully archetypal measurement with beardown hands to disengage astatine the constituent of attack.

Those hands assistance him triumph by overpowering blockers, and helium finished his sophomore play with 11 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss, second-most successful the FBS among antiaircraft linemen. He has besides been a turnover creator, forcing 4 fumbles past play (also 2nd successful the FBS) and stands retired successful a loaded Clemson antiaircraft front.

"I cognize [defensive tackle Peter] Woods gets a batch of the love, but Parker is the 1 that could beryllium drafted archetypal disconnected of that defence this year," an AFC adjunct told maine this summer.

Arch Manning, QB, Texas

Predicted accidental of going No. 1: 5%

Why helium could beryllium the apical pick: There's a batch of projection here, arsenic Manning has lone 2 starts and 95 passing attempts successful his assemblage career. Because of that, I don't judge Manning volition beryllium successful the 2026 draft. But helium has traits that could marque him an intriguing enactment atop the draught if helium has a large season.

The glimpses we saw past play were promising, arsenic helium threw for 939 yards, 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions portion rushing for 106 yards and 4 scores. At 6-4, 222 pounds, Manning has the framework scouts covet and uses it effectively. He has a picture-perfect basal and creaseless delivery, and his dual-threat capableness forces defenses to relationship for his running.

There is plentifulness for Manning to enactment on. He indispensable go amended astatine progressing past his archetypal read, arsenic his inclination to instrumentality to it leads to atrocious decisions and forced throws. He besides needs to usage his mobility much and beryllium much consenting to scramble connected dropbacks. That's wherefore I expect him to instrumentality with Texas manager Steve Sarkisian, 1 of the champion backmost developers successful the nation, and not unreserved to the NFL.

Long shots

The 'out-of-nowhere' quarterback

Since Joe Burrow's magical 2019 play catapulted him to the apical successful the 2020 draft, it has been communal for under-the-radar quarterbacks to sprout up draught boards precocious into Round 1. Ward was 1 of 4 quarterbacks we identified successful this conception a twelvemonth ago. This clip around, determination are 2 passers with Day 3 grades who could rapidly rise.

John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma (2%): Mateer arrives astatine OU with precocious expectations aft finishing with 3,139 passing yards, 29 touchdowns and 7 interceptions astatine Washington State successful 2024. He's 1 of the astir competitory and assured passers I've studied connected portion successful this people and makes downfield throws with ease. Mateer is besides mobile, moving for 826 yards and 15 touchdowns past season. If helium thrives against a docket that has a Week 2 matchup with Michigan positive 8 SEC games, his banal volition rise.

Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State (2%): Cam Skattebo got astir of the attraction during Arizona State's monolithic turnaround past season, but Leavitt besides played a large part, passing for 2,885 yards, 24 touchdowns and six interceptions aft transferring from Michigan State. He is simply a calm passer who tin dispersed and shred defenses. With Skattebo disconnected to the NFL, Leavitt volition beryllium the focal constituent of the Sun Devils' bid to repetition arsenic Big 12 champions.

Peter Woods, DT, Clemson

Predicted accidental of going No. 1: 1%

Why helium could beryllium the apical pick: Woods is presently the top-ranked subordinate connected my board, and the 6-3, 315-pounder is the catalyst of 1 of the nation's champion defenses. But it's been 31 years since a antiaircraft tackle was taken with the apical prime (Dan Wilkinson, 1994) and six years since an interior antiaircraft lineman was picked successful the apical 5 (Quinnen Williams, 2019).

Woods played a batch disconnected the borderline past play but stayed disruptive arsenic a tally defender. He had lone 3 sacks past play arsenic a sophomore, but his explosive powerfulness allowed him to penetrate the backfield arsenic a walk rusher. He'll get much snaps wrong this play arsenic a 3-technique nether caller antiaircraft coordinator Tom Allen. If helium tin person much walk rushes into sacks, Woods could beryllium a top-five prime travel April.

Spencer Fano, OT, Utah

Predicted accidental of going No. 1: 1%

Why helium could beryllium the apical pick: Fano was the astir accordant blocker connected portion successful 2024, which is wherefore he's my top-rated violative tackle. The 6-3, 302-pounder needs to adhd weight, but helium has the quickness and fluidity to matchup with speedy borderline rushers and the powerfulness to hide defenders successful tally blocking.

Fano is besides versatile, transitioning to close tackle arsenic a sophomore successful 2024 and allowing lone 1 sack aft playing near tackle the play before. If helium tin battalion connected pounds and support his level of strength and lower-half suddenness, helium could beryllium the archetypal tackle picked successful a heavy people of prospects.

Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama

Predicted accidental of going No. 1: 1%

Why helium could beryllium the apical pick: Proctor has the size (6-7, 360 pounds) to spell precise precocious successful the draft, and his champion portion is 1 of a top-10 pick. But he's a polarizing imaginable due to the fact that of his inconsistent play.

At his best, helium has the powerfulness and popular successful his hands to rapidly overwhelm rushers astatine the constituent of attack. He's forceful successful the tally crippled and generates question with ease. His walk extortion is wherever helium needs improvement, arsenic determination are blistery and acold spurts successful Proctor's play. Scouts privation to spot him play to his imaginable much arsenic a walk blocker. If helium does, helium could beryllium the archetypal blocker disconnected the board.

Isaiah World, OT, Oregon

Predicted accidental of going No. 1: 1%

Why helium could beryllium the apical pick: World is the eventual chaotic paper successful this exercise, arsenic the 6-8, 312-pound tackle is stepping up successful contention aft transferring from Nevada this offseason. But his traits are outstanding. World is an above-average jock and has ft quickness that is among the champion of immoderate blocker successful the 2026 class.

Scouts privation to spot him enactment each his traits together. Even though World didn't let a sack past season, helium drew 8 penalties (five for holding, 3 for unsportsmanlike conduct). He indispensable trim the penalties portion handling the bump up successful competition. If helium tin harvester his speedy feet with his lower-half suddenness and flashes successful the tally game, World volition beryllium a subordinate to ticker aboriginal successful Round 1.

Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

Predicted accidental of going No. 1: 1%

Why helium could beryllium the apical pick: Since the communal draught epoch started successful 1967, determination hasn't been a information drafted with the No. 1 pick. That's a inclination that's apt to continue, but it says a batch that Downs is somewhat successful the conversation.

The 6-foot, 205-pounder transferred from Alabama -- wherever helium was stellar arsenic a freshman successful 2023 -- to Ohio State past year, helping the Buckeyes to a national championship. He had 77 tackles past play and is simply a wrap-up-and-finish tackler against the run. He besides excels successful coverage, allowing lone 28.6% of passes to beryllium completed successful his sum (fifth-best successful the FBS). Downs besides has 2 touchdown returns successful his career.