Why Caitlin Clark offers the best betting value for MVP

Caitlin Clark was the favourite to triumph the WNBA MVP grant entering the 2025 play but erstwhile she was ruled retired for astatine slightest 2 weeks with a quad injury, Napheesa Collier took the apical spot connected the oddsboard. Collier is presently the overwhelming favourite to triumph MVP (-300), but Clark is acceptable to instrumentality connected Saturday against the New York Liberty.

Could she inactive get backmost successful the MVP race? If so, is determination immoderate worth successful betting connected her astatine her existent odds? Let's explore.

All likelihood are close arsenic of clip stamp. For the latest likelihood spell to ESPN BET.

Typically, the MVP grant is fixed to a subordinate that maximizes the intersection betwixt idiosyncratic accumulation and squad success. If we usage phantasy scoring mean arsenic the metric for the erstwhile and squad triumph percent for the latter, the past 10 players to triumph MVP person averaged astatine slightest 40.2 FP/G and played connected teams that won 74.8% of their games.

We are astir 20% of the mode done the season, with each squad having played astir 9 oregon 10 of their 44 games. There is inactive plentifulness of clip for things to change, but astatine contiguous determination are 4 players with a tenable accidental to acceptable the marks of an MVP.

Clark (+320) is 3rd successful the league with 41.5 FP/G, and her Fever person won 44.4% of their games.

A'ja Wilson (+2000) is 2nd successful the league with 44.3 FP/G, and her Aces person won 50% of their games.

Breanna Stewart (+3300) is twelfth successful the league with 33.7 FP/G, conscionable down teammate Sabrina Ionescu (33.8 FP/G, +10,000 to triumph MVP), but her Liberty are the past undefeated squad with a 100% triumph rate.

At present, Collier is the lone subordinate that would surpass the mean criteria of an MVP successful some metrics, which is wherefore she is the prohibitive favorite. She is the astir productive subordinate successful the league and plays for a squad that conscionable precocious mislaid their archetypal game.

Wilson and Stewart are some multiple-time MVP winners. Wilson's accumulation is overmuch higher than the emblematic MVP winner, but her squad isn't winning astatine the aforesaid gait arsenic erstwhile years, portion Stewart's squad is defeating each hostile without her having to nutrient MVP-level idiosyncratic numbers. Both are getting longshot odds, and could beryllium worthy a flyer, but their outlooks would person to alteration successful bid for them to person a morganatic accidental astatine MVP this season.

And past there's Clark. Prior to her injury, she was delivering the accumulation of an MVP candidate. Her squad was 2-2, but 1 of their losses was to the undefeated Liberty and the different was to an Atlanta Dream squad that they defeated successful the rematch. The Fever brought successful 2 high-level escaped agents this offseason successful Natasha Howard and DeWanna Bonner to articulation Clark, Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell. Now that Clark is back, it is precise plausible that the Fever could summation their triumph percent and bolster her MVP case.

Collier should beryllium the runaway favourite to triumph MVP but there's inactive 80% of the play near to go. Clark is apt to lone amended connected her accumulation (she averaged 43.7 FP/G implicit the past 28 games of her rookie season) and the Fever person the champion accidental among the teams with MVP candidates to amended dramatically successful the abbreviated term.

Clark is besides the astir fashionable subordinate successful the WNBA by a ample margin, truthful immoderate uptick successful her accumulation and betterment for Fever connected the tribunal volition effect successful contiguous changes to her likelihood successful the MVP market.

It's improbable that you'll spot Clark astatine +320 to triumph MVP again if the Fever spell connected a winning streak.

If you judge successful Clark and the Indiana Fever, there's nary amended clip to stake connected the superstar defender to triumph MVP than close now.

She is intelligibly successful a large presumption to amended her likelihood and if you don't consciousness comfy going with a longshot similar Wilson oregon Stewart, Clark offers the champion remaining betting worth connected the board.