Why is Israel attacking Lebanon?

Over the last 24 hours, Israel has unleashed a series of air strikes across Lebanon.

Hundreds of Lebanese people are dead, many are wounded and thousands are displaced as they scramble to try to figure out safe areas to get their families to.

Calling this part of its “new phase” of the war on Gaza, the Israeli army said it struck more than 1,000 targets in Lebanon – claiming they were Hezbollah strongholds or military facilities placed in people’s homes.

What happened and when?

Israel has just killed at least 558 Lebanese people.

Among the dead are 50 children and 94 women, while about 2,000 people were wounded, the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health said.

More than 10,000 people have been forced from their homes in the most ferocious onslaught Lebanon has experienced since its civil war of 1975-1990.

The first Israeli strikes on Lebanon were reported on Monday at 6:30am, hitting an uninhabited area near Byblos, north of Beirut.

More than 1,300 strikes on what Israel claimed were Hezbollah military targets followed. The attacks are ongoing.

Where in Lebanon is Israel attacking?

Satellite mapping of the strikes by Al Jazeera shows attacks across Lebanon, with the highest concentration in the south and the Bekaa Valley, where Hezbollah’s influence is considered strongest.

Before the attacks, some 80,000 phone calls from the Israeli army to Lebanese people – predominantly in the south – were reported, urging them to evacuate their homes and find “safety”.

The result was panic, chaos and bottlenecks, with the main coastal road to the capital, Beirut, gridlocked for several kilometres as residents tried to flee an impending attack.

Why is Israel attacking Lebanon?

Israel says it is attacking Hezbollah so it can return its displaced citizens to the north.

On Wednesday, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant announced the redeployment of “forces, resources and energy” towards the north and Hezbollah as the war entered a “new phase”, seeming to imply the war on Gaza was winding down.

According to Gallant, this was part of a bid to return the 65,000 Israelis he had ordered evacuated in the early days of the conflict in anticipation of Hezbollah attacks on their homes near Lebanon’s border.

That big Hezbollah attack never happened but Israel and Hezbollah have been maintaining a steady exchange of fire over Lebanon’s southern border since October 2023.

Hezbollah has promised to keep up its attacks until Israel reaches a ceasefire agreement with the group’s ally Hamas in Gaza.

In a news conference on Monday night, Israel’s military spokesperson did not rule out a land invasion of Lebanon, saying: “We will do whatever is necessary to bring back home all our citizens to the northern border safely.”

It appears so.

On September 17, a day before Gallant’s “new phase” announcement, hundreds of pagers belonging to Hezbollah members were detonated in an attack widely believed to have been undertaken by Israel.

Israel did not comment.

Volunteers carry an elderly displaced man on a chair displaced Lebanese people are received at an art institute transformed into a shelter in Beirut, on September 23, 2024 [Fadel Itani/AFP]

The following day, another attack hit Hezbollah’s walkie-talkie radios. The two attacks killed 37 people, including two children, and wounded and maimed thousands more.

The attacks compromised the group’s communications and, according to analysts, undermined its morale.

Exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah have escalated since, with a devastating Israeli strike in southern Beirut on Saturday killing 45 people and wounding many more.

How dangerous is this?

Very.

Israel and Hezbollah’s alliances could pull other countries in.

Israel’s ally, the United States, announced it was deploying additional troops to the area, without specifying how many and for what purpose. The US currently has about 40,000 troops in the region.

Hezbollah and Iran have worked in tandem since Hezbollah’s founding as a response to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982.

Israel has pitched its battles with groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah as part of a wider battle against Iran.

Israel, while it has never admitted to having nuclear weapons, is estimated to have an arsenal of 90 nuclear warheads.

Mourners carry the coffin of Hezbollah member Ali Mohamed Chalbi, after hand-held radios and pagers detonated across Lebanon, at his funeral in Kfar Melki, on September 19, 2024 [Aziz Taher/Reuters]

Iran, while not yet nuclear-armed, is considered to be close to it after an agreement to limit the country’s nuclear programme was dissolved by former US President Donald Trump in 2018.

Regardless, Iran has one of the region’s largest and most powerful militaries as well as a network of alliances with groups including Yemen’s Houthis and Gaza’s Hamas.

What would it take for other states to become involved?

Both the US and Iran have repeatedly shown themselves to be aware of the risks any escalation might pose.

Despite Israeli provocations – such as the April 2024 air strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria, and the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July – Iran’s response to Israel has so far been tepid.

Retaliation to the April air strike was telegraphed long in advance and was mostly intercepted. No response to Haniyeh’s killing has been forthcoming.

The US, despite its unflagging support for Israel, has also shown itself to be aware of the risks of escalation.

President Joe Biden, right, meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, left, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on July 25, 2024 [Susan Walsh/AP Photo]

US diplomats continue to facilitate indirect talks between Hamas and Israel to reach a ceasefire, with Biden even announcing a ceasefire deal in May, which at the time he attributed to Israel.

However, it was subsequently rejected.

What does Israel want?

For many in Israel, after decades of tension, war with Hezbollah is inevitable.

As the war on Gaza rumbles on and the death toll there soars past 41,455, many have accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of prolonging and escalating the conflict for his political ends.

Groups representing the families of those taken captive by Hamas on October 7 have accused the PM of derailing ceasefire talks – concerns echoed even by Biden, in June.

“Right now, there’s the most expensive game of chicken in the world taking place across the region,” political analyst Ori Goldberg said from Tel Aviv, speaking before the latest attack.

“It’s always framed as a kind of inevitability, one that the Israeli leadership can’t be held responsible for. They’re creating their own self-fulfilling prophecy.”