Zambia’s Hichilema begins second term amid disputed vote and arrests

Lusaka, Zambia – President Hakainde Hichilema has begun a second and final term promising to make sure ordinary Zambians feel the benefits of an economic recovery he says has put the country on a more stable footing.

But his inauguration on Tuesday came against a far less settled political backdrop: election observers have raised concerns about the conduct and counting of the August 13 vote, while opposition figures, including Hichilema’s main rival, have been arrested and charged with treason.

Hichilema won about 60 percent of the vote, according to the official results, against about 38 percent for opposition challenger Brian Mundubile. Mundubile rejected the result and alleged irregularities.

The European Union Election Observation Mission said voters had been offered a competitive choice, but the election was held on an uneven playing field. It also said the transparency of the tabulation process deteriorated significantly after the counting of results was temporarily suspended.

The observations did not amount to a finding that Hichilema had lost the election, but they have cast a shadow over the start of a second term for a president who came to power in 2021 promising to strengthen democracy, the rule of law and state institutions.

From economic recovery to political unease

Hichilema has substantial economic achievements to point to.

When he took office, Zambia was emerging from one of the worst economic crises in its recent history. The southern African country had defaulted on its sovereign debt in 2020, becoming the first African country to do so during the COVID-19 pandemic.

His government has since overseen a major debt restructuring and worked with the International Monetary Fund on a programme of economic reforms. The efforts have helped restore investor confidence and encouraged new investment, particularly in mining.

That matters well beyond Zambia’s borders. The country is one of Africa’s leading copper producers, and its mineral wealth has made it increasingly important to countries looking to secure supplies of copper and other critical minerals needed for the global energy transition.

But the improving economic picture has not necessarily translated into an easier life for many Zambians.

High food and energy costs remain a source of frustration, while the removal of fuel subsidies has put additional pressure on household budgets.

Mundubile made the cost of living a central theme of his campaign, arguing that Hichilema’s economic gains had not reached enough Zambians.

Hichilema acknowledged those frustrations during his inauguration.

“We know that many of our families have challenges with the cost of living and that the benefits of our stabilisation have not yet been felt at every level,” he told thousands of people at the ceremony in Lusaka.

“Economic growth must mean something at the dinner table to all our people,” he said.

What happened after the election?

The vote was largely peaceful at polling stations, but tensions rose as ballots were counted.

The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) temporarily suspended the tabulation and announcement of results on August 14 after violence at some counting centres and allegations of the theft of election materials.

The EU mission later reported problems at several counting centres, including extended breaks and cases in which returning officers appeared to wait for instructions before announcing results. It also reported a heavy military presence that observers said had an intimidating effect.

The role of security forces in Zambia’s political disputes has become a renewed point of concern since the disputed election and arrests of opposition figures [AFP]

The result was eventually declared in Hichilema’s favour, but Mundubile sought to challenge it through the courts.

On August 24, Zambia’s High Courts were closed and access to the premises restricted. The closure came as the deadline for filing a presidential election petition approached.

Human Rights Watch said the move essentially prevented access to the courts for those seeking to challenge the result, while authorities cited security concerns.

The dispute then took a more serious turn.

Mundubile and his running mate, Makebi Zulu, were taken into custody and charged with treason. Authorities have not publicly disclosed detailed evidence underpinning the allegations, and Mundubile has rejected them.

Before their detention, the two men sought refuge at a United Nations facility in Lusaka before surrendering to police. They remain in custody.

A deadly confrontation

The political confrontation had already turned violent in the immediate aftermath of the election.

On August 14, security forces raided a property in Lusaka linked to Mundubile. Former cabinet minister Mutotwe Kafwaya was fatally shot during the operation, while 11 other people were arrested.

Authorities said weapons were recovered and security forces acted in self-defence. Mundubile disputed that account, saying those at the property were not an armed militia.

“We see things like this in countries like Tanzania, Rwanda but not here,” political scientist Neo Simutanyi told Al Jazeera.

“Zambia has had a distinguished record in so far as democracy is concerned,” he said.

Since the end of one-party rule in 1991, Zambia has generally been regarded as one of the more stable multiparty democracies in the region, where power changes hands through elections.

After years as an opposition leader and five unsuccessful presidential bids, Hichilema defeated then-President Edgar Lungu in an election that was praised for its peaceful transfer of power and was seen as an important moment for Zambia’s democracy.

Economic confidence vs political concerns

Investors have so far largely looked past the political turmoil as Zambia’s bonds remain resilient after the election and markets are focused on debt restructuring and economic continuity.

Both China and the United States congratulated Hichilema on his re-election and sent representatives to his inauguration, underscoring Zambia’s importance as a major copper producer and potential source of critical minerals.

For Hichilema, that creates a sharp contrast.

International investors may see continuity in government and an improving economic outlook while opposition groups and observers are increasingly focused on the treatment of political opponents and the strength of democratic institutions.

Mundubile’s lawyer, Milner Katolo, told Al Jazeera there was “sincere hope” that now that Hichilema had secured his second term, a negotiated settlement could help “heal the nation” after a highly acrimonious contest.

“We hope the African Union and SADC [Southern African Development Community] can come in and encourage the state and our clients to sit and find room to resolve this dispute in an amicable way through a settlement,” Katolo said.

Whether such a settlement is possible remains unclear.

“There is a small dent on his image, on democracy and human rights, but most investors are happy that there is continuity because that means their investments are safe. They don’t pay a damn about human rights,” Simutanyi said.