Zelensky Plays His Hand

Zelensky has offered counter-drone weapons and technical knowledge to the U.S. and its allies in the Middle East and he has already dispatched more than 200 Ukrainian military experts to the region to help defend against Iran’s drone attacks.

“We are working with several other countries - agreements are already in place,” Zelensky said, noting that Ukraine’s counter-drone weapons were “far more cost effective” than the interceptors that Gulf states are using. “We do not want this terror of the Iranian regime against its neighbors to succeed.”

It’s a notable offer from a leader still fighting a war of his own. It’s also a logical and strategic play: Zelensky is seeking to leverage Ukraine’s hard-won expertise and defense capabilities to curry favor and get more support in return.

“The Ukrainians are offering to be part of the solution here,” Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges (Ret.), a former commander of U.S. Army Europe, told The Cipher Brief. “And it shows that the Russian narrative – that Russian victory is inevitable – is clearly not the case. If Ukraine is willing and able to export expertise and capability to help the Gulf states, that undermines the narrative that somehow the Ukrainians are on the verge of collapse.”

As the Iranian strikes continue – its drones hit critical oil infrastructure in three Gulf countries last week – some of the world’s richest nations are taking Ukraine up on its offer. It’s a turning of the tables that illustrates Ukraine’s evolution from battered nation to a defense technology juggernaut.

“It's a very generous offer from Ukraine to offer aid while they themselves remain under daily attack,” Kori Schake, Director of Foreign and Defense Policy at the American Enterprise Institute, told The Cipher Brief. “It's also a demonstration that Ukraine wants to contribute to the security of partner states and not just receive help.”

Iran’s drone war

While the U.S. and Israel say they have decimated Iran’s ballistic missile capability, Iranian drones continue to threaten U.S. military installations, Gulf oil facilities and critical shipping lanes.

Iran has launched more than 3,000 drones since the war began. Its Shahed drones were used in attacks on the U.S. embassies in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and in a strike that killed six U.S. service members in Kuwait. Last week, Iranian drones damaged oil infrastructure in Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and struck two vessels in the Persian Gulf.

“They’ve hit oil and gas infrastructure, they’ve hit hotels, they’ve hit embassies, they went after a data center,” Stacie Pettyjohn, Director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security, told The Cipher Brief. “They’re attacking the premise of these states’ economies, which are built on trying to attract investment and infrastructure to the region.”

Experts are divided as to how long Iran can sustain its drone operations. Prewar estimates of Iran’s drone arsenal ranged from several thousand to as many as 80,000. Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters on March 10 that Iranian launches of “one-way attack drones have decreased 83 percent since the beginning of the operation,” but analysts say that doesn’t mean the arsenal itself has been heavily degraded.

“Treating that change in behavior as evidence that Iran’s drone capacity has been destroyed risks creating a misleading picture of how much of the threat has actually been eliminated,” Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow with the Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy Program at the Stimson Center recently wrote. She said the drop in cadence might reflect a “tactical recalibration,” during which Iran is stockpiling and strategizing for future attacks.

“Moscow is reportedly sharing with Tehran drone tactics developed in Ukraine, including coordinated routing strategies designed to evade air defenses, as well as overhead satellite imagery to improve targeting,” Grieco said. “Tehran could be using this time to learn, adapt, and refine its strategy and tactics.”

Whatever the case, it’s clear that Iran can cause havoc for the region and the global economy with even a low rate of drone strikes. And the economic advantages of Iran’s drone warfare are clear; a single Shahed-136 costs between $20,000 and $50,000, and while the U.S. and its allies in the region possess some of the world’s most sophisticated air defense technologies – in particular the THAAD and Patriot systems – those are expensive interceptors designed to take out ballistic missiles. A single Patriot PAC-3 MSE, which Persian Gulf states have used against Iran’s Shaheds, costs approximately $3.8 million.

“You absolutely do not want to be using a Patriot interceptor against a Shahed drone,” Lt. Gen. Hodges said. “The Patriot cannot be the only means of defending…You save your Patriot for a ballistic missile.”

Ukraine’s “Shahed-killer”

Since the early days of its full-scale war against Ukraine, Russia has used Iranian Shahed drones to devastating effect, and manufactured its own version of the Shahed with Iranian help. Russia often launches hundreds of these drones at Ukrainian territory in a single day.

The necessity to survive has sparked Ukraine’s rapid pace of military innovation – including the development of an unparalleled ability to counter Shahed drones. Ukraine now produces a range of systems that have knocked Shaheds out of the sky at a high rate, and are much cheaper than other missile interceptors; many of the Ukrainian models cost between $1,000 and $2,000 apiece.

“Innovation happens when militaries have urgent problems to solve,” the AEI’s Schake said. “Ukraine is fighting for its life, and they've done a brilliant job of developing a domestic defense industry when we failed to give them weapons of the abilities and numbers they need. We're lagging behind because we haven't directed our defense industry with urgency.”

There are more than a dozen Ukrainian counter-drone systems, including the Merops, a high-end model funded in part by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt that includes AI-driven autonomy and comes at a higher price than the others – $15,000, still vastly cheaper than a Patriot missile.

“They’re just different ways of shooting drones out of the sky that are cheaper than the really expensive missiles,” Pettyjohn said of the Ukraine-made interceptors. “And they all afford you protection.”

Perhaps the best-known of these systems is the “Sting” interceptor drone, developed by the Ukrainian manufacturer Wild Hornets. The Sting is a high-speed FPV interceptor drone designed specifically to hunt and destroy the Shaheds in flight, and it has earned a reputation embedded in its nickname: “Shahed-killer.”

“They're working incredibly well in Ukraine, where the adaptation cycle is measured in weeks, which speaks to their great value,” Schake said. “As high-end U.S. air defenses begin to get scarce, they'll be incredibly valuable.”

Ukraine plays its card

As President Zelensky understands more than most, this isn’t just about Ukraine showing off its successful innovation; the Iran war has handed his country a strategic opportunity – a chance to showcase and leverage a suddenly in-demand technology in its relations with the U.S. countries in the Middle East.

One week into the war, Reuters reported that the U.S. and Qatar were in early-stage talks to acquire Ukrainian interceptor drones as a cheap alternative to its Patriot missiles. Another Ukrainian delegation traveled to Abu Dhabi, and Zelensky confirmed that the U.S. had asked Kyiv for "specific support" to defend against Shahed strikes against American targets in the Middle East.

“I have instructed that the necessary resources be provided and that Ukrainian specialists be present to ensure the necessary security," Zelensky said of the Qatar arrangement. He also proposed swapping Ukrainian interceptor drones for U.S. Patriots — which Kyiv has been running critically short of for months.

The U.S. interest in Ukraine’s interceptors predates the war with Iran. In late February, Pentagon officials visited Kyiv to study Ukraine’s counter-drone operations. Brig. Gen. Matt Ross, director of Joint Interagency Task Force 401, said the aim was to learn from Ukraine’s experience in beating back the Shaheds. “I did it to understand the TTPs — the tactics, techniques and procedures that they’re employing very effectively,” Ross said.

Meanwhile, Axios reported that Zelensky had offered its drone interceptors to President Trump last August – in a White House presentation that included a map of the Middle East and a suggestion that Ukraine and the U.S. collaborate to create "drone combat hubs" in Turkey, Jordan and the Persian Gulf states. The Trump administration reportedly dismissed the offer.

"Somebody decided not to buy it," an unnamed U.S. official told Axios. "If there's a tactical error or a mistake we made leading up to this [war in Iran], this was it" the official said.

A White House spokesperson dismissed that criticism, referring to the unnamed sources as “outside looking in”, adding that "Iranian retaliatory attacks are down by 90% because their ballistic missile capabilities are being totally demolished."

A strategic win for Kyiv?

Now, as Ukrainian technology and experts arrive in the Middle East, Zelensky is trying to take maximal advantage of the moment.

Beyond pitching the value of the Sting and other Ukraine-made interceptors, he has highlighted Russia’s aid to Iran – calling the two countries “brothers in hatred” – and warned that as the war in the Middle East strains U.S. missile supplies, that may create problems for Ukraine’s defense against Russia.

For all these reasons, Zelensky has asked for financial compensation and technological help from the U.S. and others in exchange for sharing Ukraine’s expertise.

“The Trump administration has been very transactional on how it approaches a lot of different countries,” Pettyjohn said. “For Ukraine, having something that the U.S. wants instead of just being a recipient and always asking for support, is an important step, and a way to show that there’s value that can flow back…They can use [the drone interceptors] as a bargaining chip to fill in some other types of support that are more critical.”

One year ago, Zelensky endured an Oval Office lecture from President Trump, including the now-infamous admonition: “You don’t have the cards.”

Last week in Kyiv, as Zelensky was pitching his drone defense technology, a journalist asked him, “Do you think Ukraine has the cards now?”

“Now everyone understands, we have them,” Zelensky replied. “It’s a good feeling. This is thanks to our soldiers, our talented people, and the many industries that we have developed since the start of the war. We have reached a high level now.”

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