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In October 2022, the negotiating teams from the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) met in Pretoria, South Africa, to make peace.
Our meeting and talks took place amidst a raging war that was wreaking havoc on our home country. Given the circumstances, our South African hosts were justified in taking some precautions to keep the two negotiation teams apart and at some distance. It was as if the protocol and security officers assigned by the host country were afraid that the negotiation teams from the two warring parties would get into a fist fight in the middle of the conference hall if they were not shepherded to steer clear of one another. But soon, our hosts were pleasantly surprised to see that being civil to one another was not going to be difficult for anyone in the room.
Relieved by the unexpectedly cordial tone set by the delegation heads from both sides, our hosts and mediators allowed the negotiators to engage directly, in a smaller room and in a less formal setting, dispensing with the need to use English as a medium of communication. With the mediators closely following our progress and stepping in to help resolve deadlocks, we held the talks for several days, at times going well beyond midnight. There were heated debates and difficult discussions. Many times, we came close to a breakdown in the talks. But we persisted and, with the support of the elder African statesmen and women who were facilitating the talks, we had more breakthroughs than breakdowns.
In this process, although we came from different sides in a deadly internal conflict, we were united in our resolve to make peace. We wanted to see the fighting come to an end. We wanted to put an end to the bloodletting. We were appalled at how the promise of a new generation was being wasted on battlefields across northern Ethiopia. We were also in agreement on the principles that should provide the framework for any agreement we would conclude. From the outset, our discussion focused on the fundamental principles that should inform our negotiation and its outcomes. Once we agreed on a set of principles as norms to underpin the agreement, the remaining task was fleshing out and operationalising these principles. This was not an easy or straightforward undertaking. There was an active war being fought as we were negotiating. Sometimes emotions ran high and the pressure was taking its toll on all of us. But we were determined to seek common ground and make peace.
Against the odds, particularly given Ethiopia’s modern history, in which negotiated settlements and compromises are quite rare, we succeeded. An Agreement for Lasting Peace Through a Permanent Cessation of Hostilities between the Government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) was signed on November 3, 2022.
The signing of the agreement was welcomed and celebrated back at home. Ethiopians from all walks of life felt relieved and glad that the war was coming to an end. But not everyone shared these sentiments. In Ethiopia, extremist elements both within the TPLF and the Amhara Fano militia were dismayed by the agreement.
The TPLF hardliners wanted to have a short-term ceasefire that would allow them to regroup and continue the war. They did not want a permanent cessation of hostilities. No matter the cost, especially to the young men and women they were using as cannon fodder in the war, they wanted to continue fighting. They were of the view that with a temporary halt in fighting, they would be able to rearm, take the initiative, and get the upper hand.
The extremist elements within the Fano also wanted the fighting to continue. In public, their complaint was that the federal government was conceding too much and being too lenient towards the TPLF. But as subsequent events have made abundantly clear, they had other motivations for wanting the fighting to continue. Equally, if not more consequential in its opposition to the Pretoria Agreement, was the Government of Eritrea. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki even went to the extent of publicly denouncing the agreement as a CIA ploy that did not serve the interests of the region.
For President Isayas, the internal conflict in Ethiopia was a dream come true. He wanted both sides to keep on fighting and to see Ethiopia bleed to death. He perceived reconciliation and peace in Ethiopia as a threat. In his quest to see an Ethiopia that is weak, fractured, and susceptible to his machinations, he has long supported various rebel and militant groups against the Ethiopian state. He did not want to see the Pretoria Agreement put an end to the crisis and suffering in Ethiopia that was giving him so much joy and comfort. So, he sought out the extremist elements in the TPLF and continued cultivating similar elements within the Fano. Eritrean operatives brokered an alliance of those disgruntled by the Pretoria Agreement. The forces intent on perpetuating a state of hostility came together under Eritrean tutelage in a band of misfits they dubbed Tsimdo.
Right now, this alliance, cobbled together in covert and not so covert meetings in Asmara, Mekelle, and Sudan, is poised to trigger another round of conflict. Aided and abetted by Asmara, the hardline rump of the TPLF has decided to launch an offensive against the federal government in the coming days. In clear violation of the Pretoria Agreement, the rump TPLF has dismantled the regional interim administration and set up its own illegal administration. It has continued recruiting, training, and arming a sizeable fighting force with the direct support of the Eritrean government. It has also purged and cast away all those within its ranks who advocated for peace and adherence to the Pretoria Agreement.
The people of the Tigray regional state have categorically rejected the war agenda and the reckless belligerence of the rump TPLF. But taking a few pages from the Eritrean playbook, the TPLF is now engaged in forced conscription and trying to turn Tigray into another “dystopia of liberation”. The rump TPLF has openly abrogated the Pretoria Agreement and is now gearing up for active and open hostility against the federal government.
It is imperative that everyone with any leverage or influence over the TPLF and its patrons in Asmara exert maximum pressure on them to avoid a relapse into conflict. A resumption of hostilities would be dangerous and would have serious regional consequences. The TPLF should not be allowed to once again resort to violence and gamble with the lives of so many young women and men. There should be a clear, categorical, and uncompromising message from the international community that the steps the TPLF and its backers in Asmara are taking to tear up the Pretoria Agreement in a violent and potentially irreversible manner are unacceptable.
The Pretoria Agreement is not perfect and its implementation was a work in progress that left much to be desired. But it was an agreement that silenced the guns and enabled the return of a degree of normalcy in a region ravaged by war. The strategic miscalculation of those who have become utterly desensitised to the death and suffering of a whole generation should not be allowed to pull us back into the nightmare of war.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
